Summer is approaching, and the UK has been relaxing restrictions on covid-19 for some time. However, the mutation of the Delta Coronavirus has cast a shadow over the optimism that looms over citizens. Many experts have warned that the increase in the number of infections may indicate that the UK is entering a third wave of epidemics.
If this is true, then the question arises, how dangerous this wave is, and whether it will be more serious than the previous two British waves.
Members of the Epidemiology Science Group (Spi-M) of the University of Warwick published the results of a model in May showing a coronavirus that is 40% more infectious than the alpha variant (B.1.1.7, British strain) The virus strain can cause up to 6,000 hospitalizations per day. If the infectivity of the strain increases by 50%, the number of hospitalizations will increase to 10,000 people per day.
Both of these situations involve cancellation or relaxation of restrictive measures.
The number of hospitalizations shown in the model exceeds the number of hospitalizations in the previous two waves, of which 4,000 were admitted in the past day, writes protector.
The prediction of the Spi-M group is important because scientists believe that the delta variant (B.1.617.2, Indian strain) is more contagious than the alpha variant, although they do not yet know how far.
British Health Minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday that Delta is 40% more infectious than the Alpha virus. A few days ago, Spi-M team member and epidemiologist Neil Ferguson (Neil Ferguson) said that estimates indicate that delta may be 60% more infectious than alpha on average, adding that the possible range is 30% to 100% between.
Infectious or transmissible strains in Delta are not the only problem. The National Public Health Agency of England (PHE) stated that after a single dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca, citizens’ protection against symptomatic delta infections was significantly reduced.
That is, in the case of the alpha variant, the single-dose vaccine is 50% effective in preventing symptomatic diseases, while in the case of delta it is only 33%. After the second dose, the effectiveness of the vaccine increased to an average of 81%.
PHE also claims that the association between delta and hospitalization risk is more than twice that of the alpha variant, although it warns that more research is needed to confirm and investigate the link to vaccination.
“If you have a more infectious and severe strain, it is worrying. But I think there is still some uncertainty about how infectious the delta variant is and how harmful it is to the health of patients. Sex,” said Michael Tildesley of the institute. The University of Warwick is also a member of the Spi-M group.
These uncertainties make it difficult to accurately determine the potential severity of the third wave.
Rowland Kao, a computer biologist at the University of Edinburgh, said: “Although there is evidence that Delta is more contagious and leads to more hospitalizations, we are still not sure how much it will affect the workload and death toll in the intensive care unit.” A member of the Spi-M group. .
“If existing vaccines provide a high degree of protection against delta variants, this should at least mitigate the effects of the third wave. However, evidence supports mitigation of mitigation measures and considers stronger local restrictions in limited circumstances,” he added Tao. .
Experts also worry that the increase in infections may lead to an increase in so-called long-term Covid cases, which will put additional pressure on public health.