The European Fee revealed yesterday that, excluding Portugal and Finland, the expansion forecast of 27 European international locations (EU) for 2021 has elevated in all international locations/areas from Might to now, however Portugal and Finland stay unchanged.
Since mid-June, the fourth wave of pandemics affecting the nation, particularly the better Lisbon space, pressured the European Fee (EC) to recalculate its forecasts for the Portuguese economic system. The state of affairs is grim. Portugal and Finland have change into the one international locations among the many 27 EU international locations that haven’t raised their progress forecasts for this yr. It stays the identical, wait and watch.
In response to new information launched by the European Group yesterday, throughout the scope of the summer time forecast and the anticipated progress with out the fourth wave of pandemic (whereas persevering with to unfold), the nation could have created one other 1.5 billion euros in new wealth (Worth-added).
That is the distinction between the 4.8% progress in 2021 (as predicted by the Financial institution of Portugal earlier than the fourth wave) and the three.9% progress presently predicted by the European Union, and the worsening of the epidemic has been mirrored within the accounts.
Yesterday, the European Union Financial Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni (Paolo Gentiloni) clearly talked about the newest forecast earlier than the fourth wave. As talked about earlier, Financial institution of Portugal did: 4.8%.
Nevertheless, the entity led by Mário Centeno acknowledged that “the deadline for macroeconomic forecast information ready within the context of the Eurosystem train in June 2021 is Might 21”.
In different phrases, BdP elevated this yr’s progress fee from 3.9% to 4.8%, however as a result of it might solely accumulate data earlier than Might 21.
On Might 21, though the brand new virus outbreak has not but manifested, the Minister of Finance himself waved optimistically and stated that right now has proved to be extreme.
On the time, João Leão even acknowledged, “We could have comparatively excessive progress [aos 4% do Programa de Estabilidade], This can be nearly a degree larger than our forecast, however it’s nonetheless too early. “Just a little extra signifies that if issues proceed to go properly, the expansion could attain 5%.
Gentiloni defined: “Our forecast ended after we began to see a rise in infections, some difficulties in tourism with overseas international locations, and a few restricted restrictions within the Lisbon space on the finish of final month.”
“These current developments have allowed the Committee to make a extra life like forecast, which is totally different from the Financial institution of Portugal’s forecast, which is extra optimistic.” In view of this, the European Group maintains its Might progress forecast: the economic system ought to develop by 3.9%.
In actual phrases, the distinction between a 4.8% enhance (as BdP stated earlier than the fourth wave was achieved) and the three.9% EC is now roughly 1.5 billion euros. Because the pandemic has recovered, that is what the economic system is shedding right now.
Brussels asks for confidence in covid digital certificates
At a press convention in Brussels yesterday, Gentiloni confirmed that the “principal issue” that led to the upkeep of the Might forecast was the worsening of the pandemic and the truth that new restrictions have been imposed on the motion of companies and other people. .
Nevertheless, the Commissioner hopes to go away one hope: “Our forecast takes under consideration the evolution of the state of affairs in current weeks, however I imagine that the entry into drive of the EU’s covid-19 digital certificates will contribute to raised improvement, particularly in international locations like Portugal Nations intently associated to worldwide tourism.”