Even when the quarantine is lifted, the financial system will nonetheless develop by 15.5% year-on-year, and it has nearly reached the extent earlier than the well being disaster. For the total yr, it now predicts that GDP will develop by 3.5%
The Catholic College predicted within the quarterly scenario desk launched on Wednesday, July 7 that the Portuguese financial system will likely be its finest efficiency because the pandemic started.
“Every thing exhibits The extent of financial exercise in Portugal within the second quarter was the very best because the pandemic started And the confinement coverage launched in March 2020″ refers back to the notes of the forecast laboratory, which identified a 5% enhance from the earlier month and a year-on-year enhance of 15.5%. Nonetheless, Catholic economists identified that “the idea for this calculation within the two quarters is these The scenario of confinement is extra severe”.
In response to calculations, “The Portuguese financial system ought to function at round 95.5% of the extent of the fourth quarter of 2019, The final one has no pandemic and confinement results, so the ending interval would be the finest post-covid quarter
Financial exercise clause”, said within the description.
The Forecast Lab acknowledges the “enormous uncertainty” and factors out that “within the core situation, the expansion price in 2021 is 3.5%, and the revised price is +2.5 share factors (pp), which is able to make the Portuguese financial system function at 95.7%. Across the degree of 2019,” he mentioned. The “sturdy upward correction” defined by two components: “the decline within the first quarter was suppressed” and the “estimated rebound within the second quarter”.
Given the excessive diploma of uncertainty, “This yr’s progress price could also be between 2% and 5% It is dependent upon the depth of financial exercise restrictions and the dimensions of funds assist for corporations and households. “
Within the subsequent two years, Catholics imagine that regardless of the uncertainty, “it’s now extra prone to attain a degree of financial exercise much like 2019” in 2022, but it surely is dependent upon “the shortage of containment measures and normalization of the financial system”. division. Tourism,” he warned.
“For 2022, the central situation maintains a 4.5% progress, which may even mirror the numerous base impact introduced by the primary quarter of this yr. Within the case of 2023, the central situation now solely grows by 2%. Contemplating the disaster subsequent yr The restoration of earlier ranges and the predictable return of fiscal consolidation measures as a technique to scale back public debt to a sustainable degree from that yr,” he identified.