For rating agencies, job losses caused by the pandemic are much more serious than the global financial recession of 2007-08.
Rating agency Moody’s believes that southern European countries, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, are most vulnerable to increased unemployment caused by the covid-19 pandemic, which may delay economic recovery.
According to Moody’s “s” report, widespread damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic [Sars-Cov-2] In the European labor market, it is particularly serious for women, young people, and workers with lower levels of education. This situation may delay the recovery of countries such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal. “
Li Ruosa, an analyst at Moody’s Investor Services and co-author of the report, said: “The impact on young people, women and lower-quality employees is particularly great.”
Analysts also stated that “in some areas, the employment crisis related to covid-19 is much more serious than the global financial crisis of 2007-08”.
He explained that this was largely due to the complete interruption of activities “in sectors such as hospitality and tourism, which employ a large number of workers from these population groups.”
Moody’s also warned that in the worst-affected countries in Southern Europe, the weak and long-lasting economic recovery after the pandemic may mean long-term production losses.
“Without the support of relevant policies on education and the labor market, a long-term recovery may lead to an increase in the number of low-income families capable of accumulating material and human capital, especially through educational achievements.”
The agency warned in the report that this would weaken the labor productivity of the entire economy for a long time.
Moody’s believes that “home care obligations and the challenge of finding a job during the pandemic are the main reasons for the decline in labor participation rates.” He pointed out that Italy, Spain and Cyprus are the countries with the largest decline in employment rates and women’s participation in the past year.
The analysis said: “In contrast, women in Denmark and Sweden are less likely to leave the labor market due to their family responsibilities.”
Although it is expected that “once the government starts to withdraw the support plan,” the unemployment rate of both men and women will soar, but Moody’s predicts that the number of women will further “deteriorate. In the affected sectors, they have occupied a relatively dominant position and the recovery is slow “, such as tourism or retail.”