In an interview with a TV channel, he said that a large part of the population who “dropped out of school” during the middle-class pandemic has become poorer. RBK Dean of Yaroslav Kuzminov’s Higher School of Economics. According to him, this may also have negative political consequences.
He believes that the fact that the state supports production instead of being a representative of the middle class who loses their livelihood is a wrong estimation, because any innovation in consumption and innovation in the economy is supported by the middle class, that is, people who have the opportunity to choose . The main challenge facing Russia is the decline in the real income of the population. It is impossible to deal with it by supporting the weakest.
Kuzminov said that although there were no immediate political consequences, the transition from the middle class to the poor was “political explosive.” The decline in middle-class income may also cause Russia to not achieve significant growth in economic growth, and the indicator will remain “within 2%.”
In December last year, experts from Alfa-Bank and the Higher School of Economics stated that after failure due to the pandemic crisis, Russians’ real income recovery will be slow-at best, their real income will increase at most by 2021 2% down by 5% by the end of 2020…
Alfa-Bank’s forecast seems to be more pessimistic than the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which believes that real income will fall by 3% in 2020, increase by 3% in 2021, and then increase by 2.4-2.5%. Alfa-Bank believes that after a slight rebound in 2021, income is at risk of stagnation and will not be able to return to its pre-crisis levels in 2013.
The 2020 pandemic crisis caused a sharp decline in household income: in the first nine months, the average annual decline was 4.3%. Obstacles to income recovery in 2021 will be the suppression of economic activities (experts point out that the second round of coronavirus may also cover the first quarter of 2021), as well as the storage of budget expenditures and the difficult economic situation in the region, which account for a large part of social expenditures .
According to the forecast of the HSE Development Center, the income of Russians will increase by 2.2% by 2021, but by 2022, the growth of this indicator will slow to 1.9%. Economists at the Institute predict that Russia’s GDP will fall by 3.9% by 2020, the recovery growth rate in 2021 will be 2.8%, and GDP growth in 2022 is expected to reach 3.1%.
TsMAKP Dmitry Belousov (Dmitry Belousov), the head of the macroeconomic department, said that by the end of 2020, the income of Russians will decrease at a rate of 3-3-5% per year, and their growth will be 1.5 next year. % Within. At the same time, due to the payment before the Duma in the 2021 general election, the final figure may be higher, but in general, the failure in 2020 will only be resolved before the end of 2022.
Beginning in 2023, due to the recovery of labor market shortages and the first results of the national productivity improvement project, it is possible to accelerate the growth of real wages. In this case, the actual disposable income of Russians will increase by 2.5-3% by 2023 and 3.5% by 2024.
At the same time, according to experts, the long-term stagnation of Russian real income, coupled with the country’s high level of inequality, has created the risk of reduced trust in the country and increased dissatisfaction with society. The rise in the unemployment rate may not only be cyclical, but also structural in nature: the dynamics of unemployment may be affected by technological changes that reduce the demand for labor and increase the supply of labor in the labor market. The birth rate is higher in the decade. By the end of 2021, the unemployment rate may remain at 6%.
At the same time, the main beneficiaries of national economic policies in recent years have been the financial sector and the real estate sector. Since 2011, their share of GDP has been increasing. By 2020, their total share has accounted for more than 15% of the total economy, compared with 12% in 2011. From 2018 to 2019, the financial and insurance industry grew by more than 9% each year.
According to experts, the growth of these two sectors is especially the result of the maternal capital plan launched in 2010. This year, the pension fund may issue as much as 430 billion rubles. According to the plan, mortgage loans can especially be stimulated. As the preferential mortgage plan for new buildings will take effect in July 2021, the volume of real estate acquisitions may continue to grow until mid-2021. In addition, due to a refurbishment plan in Moscow, road construction and a reduction in loan interest rates in 2020, housing affordability is improving.
As for the banking industry, it has encountered the coronavirus situation in a relatively strong state. Its large-scale clean-up work was completed at the end of 2019 and increased capital for some large banks, which facilitated this work. At the same time, the government and the central bank have adopted a package of anti-crisis measures in the financial sector, including supporting the ruble and foreign exchange liquidity, easing supervision of banks, and providing subsidies for soft loan interest rates for small businesses and affected industries. . The epidemic also accelerates the use of digital financial services in Russia by supporting the financial sector.