The hypothetical situation takes into account various variables, and it is reasonable to show that as the immune movement develops, we will reduce the risk of disease. According to some experts, a prevalence will be established, while others believe that the emergence of these variants represents a threat that should not be underestimated. On the other hand, achieving herd immunity will remain utopia.
How will the Covid-19 pandemic end? When will it end? More than a year after being first confirmed to be positive for the new coronavirus, many people are wondering if and when we will return to normal. Many people tried to answer, highlighting the uncertainty of the most authoritative sources. On the one hand, the hypothetical scenario is based on the difficult-to-determine assumption that Sars-Cov-2 will become an endemic virus like the common cold virus, which will cause re-infection and generate sufficient immunity to fight serious diseases. On the other hand, some people look back at the past and how the popularity of history ended.
In any case, it is usually a generalization that ends with itself, because Sars-Cov-2 proved to be Viruses with evolutionary ability This has caused a lot of attention. “The level of silence is beyond previous imagination“Recently, it has been emphasized that Rafael Sanjuán, one of the leading experts in virus research and development in Spain, is facing the thousands of variants that have been in circulation. He believes that he is developing so-called recombinant mutants or genetic mixtures. The emergence of two or more coronaviruses creates conditions. The co-infection of two or more coronaviruses, by co-infecting the same host, exchanging part of the genome, so as to obtain information that can confer one or more special advantages on the new pathogen, such as increasing the ability to infect The possibility of evading bacterial infection. Recognizing antibodies caused by previous infections (or vaccinations) and even infections of multiple animals.
In other words, because the respiratory virus is as widespread and severe as the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus, there is no historical precedent for a pandemic. “In recent history, everything has revolved around the flu, and the timeline is a few years -Emory University (Emory University) biology researcher, James Lavine (Jennie Lavine) said that he was published in ” science It is predicted how the Covid-19 pandemic will proceed.
According to Lavine and colleagues, the number of severe forms of Covid-19 will decrease as the elderly (more likely to be hospitalized and die from Covid) gain immunity against Sars-Cov-2.This “training” of the immune system through infection and vaccination is likely to change future Sars-Cov-2 infections Equivalent to a cold. Over time, as some degree of protection becomes more and more common among adults, the most commonly infected people will be young children whose infections are not serious even now.
Therefore, hypothetical circumstances indicate that Sars-Cov-2 will continue to spread in the population, albeit in a different way. “This is neither the death penalty nor that we will not be able to get herd immunity -Lavine added-. that is The virus will become endemic, So the question we ask ourselves is: Will the virus be a mild epidemic in the future or will it be a severe epidemic?I would say that at some point the infection is likely to be mild and endemic“.
Utopia of cattle immunity
The Emory University research team is not alone in supporting the study of the epidemic status, setting aside the possibility of controlling the spread of Sars-Cov-2 through herd immunity.Earlier this spring, Jonathan Yewdell, a senior researcher in cell biology and viral immunology at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), published an article in the journal PLOS pathogen Claims coronavirus They will not activate the type of immune protection In order to establish immunity to the herd, we need a long time. In contrast, endemic Sars-Cov-2 infections have seasonal characteristics and spread mainly in winter when children go to school and when we spend more time in closed and crowded places.
Florian Cramer, a vaccinologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, said that, at least in principle, some of these flu seasons may be more severe than others, but they will not cause a pandemic. “If this virus becomes a seasonal virus, and vaccination rates are still low in some countries, the initial flu season may be more intense. -Means Krammer-. In countries with higher vaccination rates, the flu season will be weaker“.
On a global scale, this transition to a popular state will happen at different times. “I believe we will see huge differences between western countries Carry out an extensive vaccination campaign And countries that have not received enough vaccines -Har Kotmer- Even in countries with extremely high infection rates like Iran, I think that their immunity is so high that the pandemic is unlikely to re-evolve.“.
If the virus does become widespread, given the high levels of infection that have been recorded so far and the large number of people who have been vaccinated, the “transition” to this new phase of the United States may soon come. “I would say that the moment is not far away in America Canyon said. I won’t say that the virus will disappear, but this infection is no longer a scourge.“.
Risk of mutation
However, other experts are more cautious about this transition assumption.The reason for caution comes from what has already happened In Brazil and India, Although the infection had spread widely at the beginning of the pandemic, a terrible wave of Covid-19 caused by the so-called mutation of concern followed. “I think we must take into account the actual situation this year, the multiple waves, and the fact that there is no concrete evidence that any country can eliminate this epidemic on its own. -Said Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard University’s TH Chen School of Public Health- And I think natural history may be slower Part of this evolution“.
Mike Ryan, the head of the World Health Organization’s emergency health program, holds the same view. “We don’t know where we are, because this is the first pandemic of the SARS coronavirus -Ryan said- From my perspective, Maybe we are not over yet. But I also think that we can achieve such a high level of disease control that this pandemic will no longer be a health emergency.So in this sense I believe it will end“.