The weight of public investment is 3.6%, which is far from the Socratic period of more than 5%. Over the past three years, Costa Rica has invested 21.5 billion euros in the country. The former prime minister has exceeded 23 billion U.S. dollars between 2008 and 2010. Then he had to step down as president.
According to calculations, within three years before the end of the term of the current parliament (parliamentary elections should be held on September or 2010, 2023), Antonio Costa’s government promised to inject more than 21.5 billion euros of public investment into the Portuguese economy. Dinheiro Vivo is based on data from the new Stability Program (PE), such as the nominal growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and the share of public investment in GDP.
However, according to historical records (the history of the National Bureau of Statistics can be traced back to 1995), even with the help of European bazookas and free subsidies in the coming years, Costa will still be able to defeat the government of Joseph Socrates. Public investment. Whether it is value or ratio.
In euro terms, José Sócrates beat everyone. In the last three years in power, public investment reached an impressive 23.3 billion euros until it reached the troika.
The investment ratio at that time also broke a record. It was equivalent to 3.7% of GDP in 2008 and rose to 4.1% in the second year. In 2010, it became the second highest value in the INE series (5.3%). This symbol was not created until 1997 by the PS’s Antonio Guterres (Antonio Guterres) government.
As we all know, most of the investment in the Socratic era was financed by public debt and successive high deficits, the consequences of which are what we know today. The country went bankrupt and was forced to ask for international assistance.
Antonio Costa Rica hopes to mobilize large amounts of funds to ensure a steady recovery and avoid the damage caused by the covid-19 pandemic, but it will not reach the level of the former PS prime minister. Whether it is value or ratio. The government in the stabilization plan stated that by the end of 2025, public investment will account for a maximum of 3.6% of GDP in these five years (2023 and 2024).
What does the stabilization plan bring
The European Union government estimates that Portugal is expected to spend 400 million euros this year on the purchase of a vaccine against covid-19. Last year, the Minister of Health pointed out that about half of the expenditure (200 million euros) was used to purchase 22 million doses of vaccines. If the 400 million euros are confirmed, it is almost as much as Novo Banco’s estimated budget.
The Ministry of Finance said that this year’s public expenditure to support Novo Banco (NB) is expected to reach 430 million euros. This is a “unchanged measure”, “one-off” (occurring only once), but the budget does not actually exist in the OE, because the rules for providing the budget for it were rejected by the opposition in PS. However, the government has stated that it will find a way to obtain the money because, according to the executive, the state is “a good guy” and intends to fulfill its contract with Lone Star (the majority owner of NB). And funds. In this year’s OE proposal, the government hoped to set a budget of 476.6 billion euros for NB, but it did not succeed. At the same time, due to losses in 2020, Novo Banco asked for more funds: 598 million euros.
During the implementation of EP, the Recovery and Resilience Program (PRR) is expected to have an impact of 3.5% on GDP. “By quantifying the impact of PRR investment in the short term, the average annual growth rate of GDP can be increased by 0.7%.” Therefore, “in these five years, every euro invested in PRR will have an impact of 1.4 euros on GDP ( Short-term multiplier)”. At stake are the 16.6 billion euros in grants and loans from the European Union that will inject the economy into the post-pandemic recovery.