In Europe, a way out of the crisis is taking shape. According to the forecast issued by the European Commission on Wednesday, following a 6.6% decline in 2020 and a further contraction in the first quarter, GDP is expected to rebound by 4.3% this year.
In the past few months, the European Commission has become less pessimistic. Even though the question of victory has not been announced, and although the Covid-19 pandemic is still spreading and the risk of seeing new variants emerge, its latest economic forecast (released on Wednesday, May 12) outlines the way out of the crisis. . After a decline of 6.6% in 2020 and a further contraction in the first quarter, the euro zone’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rebound this year, this year will grow by 4.3% (4.2% within the EU), and then by 4.4% (Europe) . Both scenarios will be proposed in 2022. In February, the last time the committee’s experts made a difficult forecast, they were betting that economic growth would be reduced by about half a percentage point in either 2021 or 2022.
“The shadow of Covid-19 is beginning to withdraw from the European economy”Summarized the Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. The increase in vaccination campaigns-so far, 27.7% of the European population has received the first dose-the gradual removal of restrictions on activities constitutes a hotbed for redeployment of continental growth. Therefore, several electric motors should be used to power it. First, domestic consumption, especially due to a large amount of forced savings, has increased consumption. Moreover, external demand from other parts of the world is also increasing. Especially the United States: Joe Biden’s economic recovery plan should bring a 0.3 point growth in Europe in 2021 and 0.2 point in 2022.
Finally, the calculation committee, «L‘Public investment as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach its highest level in more than a decade in 2022. “.Especially thanks to Europe’s 750 billion euro recovery plan (Grants of US$390 billion and loans of US$360 billion) are expected to be paid for the first time this summer, with some countries paying in July at most and others in September. If the parliaments of 27 countries reach an agreement by then, 8 countries (Estonia, Ireland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Romania, Finland) are still owed at this stage to avoid having the committee provide funds for this project on their behalf.
Overall, by the end of 2022, Brussels economists have not considered the European recovery plan in their previous forecasts, which will inject 140 billion euros into European economies, representing an additional 1.2 for 27 countries. A percentage point increase.
You have 57.11% of the articles to read. The rest only applies to subscribers.