One of the key issues raised in the coronavirus pandemic must be the covid-19 mortality rate. The issue of (increased) mortality is particularly controversial when discussing measures taken by the government to prevent or reduce the spread of infection.
However, the number itself is controversial. Facts have proved that some countries (such as Serbia) have determined the death toll from the crown and assumed that the actual number in each region is even higher than the official figure, because the health system may not be able to record all the people killed by covid-19.
> WHO: In Europe, 1 million people die from the crown, 160 people die every minute
The British “The Economist” also wants to know how to avoid the trap that leads to inaccurate statistics, and suggests that the most sensible way is to measure the so-called “excessive deaths”, that is, the increase in death rates compared to the same period last year.
With the spread of covid-19 around the world, people are in a dark cognitive process and gradually become familiar with the death toll released by their government every day. Unfortunately, the total number of deaths from the pandemic may be higher due to a variety of reasons. First, the official statistics of many countries do not include victims who have not tested positive for the coronavirus before their deaths-in places with low testing capacity, this may be the vast majority. Second, hospitals and registries may not process death certificates for days or even weeks, causing a backlog of data. Third, the “Pandemic” makes it difficult for doctors to treat other diseases and prevents people from going to hospitals, which may indirectly lead to an increase in the number of deaths from diseases other than COVID-19, the Economist wrote.
One way to avoid these methodological problems is to use a simpler method called “excessive death”: Count the number of deaths from any cause in a given area and period, and then compare it with historical baseline data in recent years. Provide advice to The Economist when estimating casualties caused by the covida-19 pandemic.
Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the official data recently released by Eurostat, which deals with the excess mortality of EU member states in 2020 and 2021.
Between January 2020 and February 2021, the EU experienced two complete waves of excessive deaths: the first was between March 2020 and May 2020 (reaching a 25% residual rate), and the first The second time is between August 2020 and February and February 2021 (reaching a 40% remaining rate). .
After reaching two significant peaks in the spring and autumn of 2020, the excess mortality rate began to decline in the first two months of 2021: compared to the average for the same period in 2016-2019, it was 16% in January and 5 in February. %.
Speaking of Croatia, the figure in February this year was higher than the EU average. In Croatia, the death rate increased by 3.3%, while in the European Union, the death rate increased by 5.3%.
Croatia had the highest death rate in December last year, at 60.4%, a period when the headquarters authorities reported more than 100 deaths every day. In the European Union at the time, the death rate increased by an average of 30%. November was also disastrous for Croatia, with the death rate increasing by 44.6%. To date, more than 6000 people in Croatia have died from the crown.
In any case, these figures show that the Andrej Plenković government failed in the second wave of pandemic, leading to an increase in death rates. At the same time, the first wave of Croatian data is exemplary: in April 2020, the death rate in Croatia was 3.7% lower than that from 2016 to 2019, while in the European Union, the death rate increased by an average of 25%.
According to data compiled by The Economist, during the period from April last year to February this year, the number of deaths in Croatia was 7,160 more than the average before the pandemic, while the number of deaths from covid-19 was 5,480. That is 117 deaths per 100,000 people, which is very bad for a country that has disappeared demographically anyway. On the other hand, these figures are much better than those of countries such as Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In the European Union, the excessively high mortality rate between May and July decreased, and the mortality rate began a second pandemic in August, thereby increasing the mortality rate.
At the end of summer, the new increase in mortality started in August and September. The average growth rate in October was 17.5%, and the average growth rate in November 2020 was 40.7%, the highest in the whole year. This was followed by a small decline in December (30.4%). Then, the death rate of all Member States rose.