According to the report, Russian beef consumption in 2020 will drop by 3.4% to 1.94 million tons, the lowest level in the past ten years. “businessman” Refer to the data of the Industrial Specialty Center of the Agricultural Bank of Russia.
The head of the National Meat Association, Sergei Yushin, clarified that in the context of coronavirus restrictions, the transition to remote work, and the uncertainty of future income, consumers have saved and opted for cheaper ones. Types of protein, including poultry and pork. In addition, the HoReCa part (a part of the service industry that is a commodity distribution channel for direct consumption of goods at the point of sale) has a large amount of beef, which will be reduced by 2020.
The demand for beef has fallen for the second year in a row, which is attributed to the decrease in the production of cattle on personally attached land. At the same time, beef exports have increased by 103% to 20,000 tons, and by 2020, China’s supply has fallen by 45%. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products has fallen, accounting for 80% of the market, while the consumption of meat and beef has increased five-fold in seven years, reaching 300,000 tons.
Experts predict that beef will become an increasingly high-quality meat: as milk production increases, the number of dairy cows will decrease and the share of beef varieties will increase, but the production of beef varieties will cost more. At the same time, the high-end market is still not saturated, so with the development of production and logistics, retail trade, delivery to remote areas, and catering business, consumption will also increase.
As for the results in 2021, experts predict that due to the rebound in demand and the opening of the HoReCa market, beef consumption will increase. Another reason may be rising prices of pork and poultry, including due to epidemics in the production of these types of meat. Therefore, related to African swine fever, the National Swine Federation lowered its pork production growth forecast from 2.5-260,000 tons to 1.75-18 million tons, which will cause prices to remain at the 2020 level.
Due to the bird flu and foreign hatching egg supply problems in January and February, the production of poultry meat fell 6.2%. Other experts pointed out that this year’s pork and poultry price increase is an extremely rare and short-lived phenomenon, which will last no more than a few months, so there is no need to wait for the transition to more expensive beef. The demand for meat from dairy cattle breeds will depend on changes in population income. In addition, the product also competes with turkeys, whose production and supply are growing.