Catholics say that after a 0.2% growth in the last quarter of 2020, the Portuguese economy should exceed 5% this quarter. It is expected to grow by only 1% by 2021.
The Portuguese economy should have experienced a significant 5% contraction in the chain (between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of this year), which means that if the economy suffers any new misfortunes, the country may be in a new recession in. Between April and June, it marks the Economic Research Core (NECEP) of the Catholic University of Portugal.
The core scenario of these new forecasts is that by 2021, economic growth should only reach 1%. The definition of a technological recession is two quarters, followed by a decline in output (GDP).
According to a new scenario statement, NECEP pointed out: “By the first quarter of 2021, the Portuguese economy should contract by 5% from the previous month, and the year-on-year change should be around 7%.” Since January, the first quarter has marked the second major confinement aimed at responding to the covid-19 pandemic, which has only recently begun to ease.
Catholics still say that the future does not bode well for the economy. “From the perspective of NECEP, Politics, media and social environment are conducive to severe confinement If the daily health indicators of the pandemic deteriorate significantly, the central scenario of weak GDP growth in 2021 reflects the expected value of this impact.
NECEP estimates that the core situation is that this year’s growth rate is only 1%, but if there are more difficulties by the end of 2021, the economy is likely to fall by 2%. In October, the government forecasted 5.4%. recent, The Bank of Portugal (March) and the International Monetary Fund (April) are expected to be 3.9%.
Regarding the beginning of this year, economists recognized that “given that certain indicators (such as industrial production or cement sales) imply a relatively small interruption, while other indicators (such as operations in the United States) have a significant impact in this calculation. Uncertainty. “Multibanco network, fuel sales or service turnover shows a significant decline.”
According to the new analysis, the sharp drop in GDP forecast for the first quarter of this quarter (a 5% drop) will be “the biggest drop since quarterly data, except for the second quarter of last year.” This will reflect the “state of emergency and severe lockdown. The normal functioning of society”.
NECEP proved this result to be correct, because “Portuguese economy must operate at a level of around 90% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (the last normal period before the pandemic).”
What is missing in 2021 due to the suspension and the end of the new ban
The Católica group said: “The hypothesis of strong growth cannot be ruled out from the beginning, because the third quarter of last year well illustrates the possibility of a rapid recovery after the relaxation of containment measures”, but he insisted that the key: the forecast is highly uncertain “.
Even if tourism is restored, there are still some traps in the Portuguese economy that can swallow possible growth. After the ban, the financial collapse of families and companies, the increase in bad debts, and collective layoffs are being prepared.
“The public account is still at risk of serious deterioration, and it is necessary to revise the 2021 budget. Suspension of public and private NECEP stated that this constitutes a significant additional risk to the Portuguese economy and financial system, noting that they are equivalent to nearly 25% of GDP in 2019.
“In the short term, the suspension of transactions has helped to reduce the impact of childbirth by reducing the company’s cash flow requirements. It has also reduced the budgets of many households, financial institutions and government public expenditures through guarantees undertaken by the state.”
Therefore, “the Portuguese economy is still in an environment of high uncertainty related to the evolution of the pandemic, vaccine management and containment procedures.” Adopted in 2021″.