This is stated in the updated forecast
According to a report by the Kapital.kz Business Information Center, according to the April Macroeconomic Assessment of the Kazakhstan Situation by the Applied Economic Research Center (AERC), the Kazakhstan economy in 2021 is still affected by fiscal stimulus and soft currency conditions.
In the review, AERC is based on the following assumptions: the price of Brent crude oil will rise to an average of US$62.3 per barrel in 2021; the economies of trading partner countries will grow by 4.5%; Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output will reach 88.9 million tons . In this case, AERC predicts that Kazakhstan’s real GDP will grow by 3.9% by 2021.
In February, AERC predicted a 4.8% GDP growth in 2021. Experts explained that the downward adjustment of the predicted value is related to the continuous surge in global infections, new strains of coronavirus, and the slowing down of the vaccination process.
USD/KZT and inflation forecast
Assuming that the price of Brent crude oil is US$62.3 per barrel, AERC forecasts U.S. dollar to tenge exchange rate (USD/KZT) Average level in 2021 430.9 tengeCompared with 2020, it is down 4.3%. It should be noted that in February, AERC predicted that the national currency will depreciate against the US dollar by 4.8%. The outlook has improved due to expectations of rising oil prices.
Simultaneously Average annual consumer inflation Analysts believe that by the end of 2021, this will be 7.4% Relative to 2020. Compared with the February forecast (6.5%), the inflation forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards, which can be explained by the current situation: sustained fiscal stimulus measures have increased aggregate demand, while monetary conditions remain weak (National Bank of Kazakhstan). Still maintaining the benchmark, experts say that this figure will reach the level of 9%) and predict that the strength of the US dollar against the US dollar in 2021 will drop by 4.3% from last year. The latter factor affects inflation in terms of exchange rate transmission.
GDP forecast (based on total demand and total supply)
In the context of the gradual recovery of household consumer demand, the investment demand of enterprises, the continuous high government expenditure to stimulate economic growth, and the increase in actual exports and imports within the framework of the baseline forecast of the aggregate demand model It is estimated that by 2021, Kazakhstan’s real GDP will increase by 3.4% over 2020.
According to AERC’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP constructed using the aggregate supply model will grow by 4.3% in 2021. The manufacturing and construction industries will be the main drivers of Kazakhstan’s economic recovery. At the same time, due to the higher growth rates of the mining industry and the transportation and storage industries, the real GDP growth rate of the total supply component has improved compared with February.
Considering these two predictions, The consensus forecast of Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth rate in 2021 is 3.9%.
Trade balance forecast
Based on AERC’s estimates and considering the initial baseline assumptions Trade balance Kazakhstan will be positive at the end of 2021: the surplus of merchandise exports exceeding imports will be $ 11.1 billionIn the context of the expected increase in oil prices in 2021, the price is higher than the price in 2020. Therefore, compared with imports, exports recover faster.
Predict the parameters of the national budget
The taxable base in 2021 will gradually begin to recover, so it is expected to increase tax income National budget At 14.0% AERC analysts said that compared with the same period last year, the figure was 9.8 trillion tenge.
receipt Corporate Income Tax (CIT) By 2021, the nominal value will reach 2.1 trillion tenge, which is equivalent to corporate income tax income in 2020 (an increase of 1% compared to 2020).
At the same time, AERC forecasts revenue growth Individual Income Tax (IIT) By 2021, it will increase by 6% over the previous year and reach 0.9 trillion tenge. In the current year, the AERC forecast for personal income tax is related to the high growth rate of the nominal currency income of the population (premises of 10.2% compared to the previous year), which is comparable to the 2020 indicator (+ 10.3%).
receipt Value added tax (VAT), Due to the increase in taxable turnover, it will grow to 2.7 trillion tenge by 2021. For comparison: According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the value-added tax revenue in 2020 is 2.5 trillion tenge.
Therefore, according to AERC’s forecast, Government spending By 2021, the total will reach 16.5 trillion tenge, which is slightly lower than government expenditure in 2020 and higher than this year’s expected budgetary revenue.
As a result, the balance of the state budget Taking into account the guaranteed transfer of the national fund, by 2021, the deficit will be 4.6 trillion tenge-2.2 trillion tenge or -2.6% of GDP. In contrast: According to the Ministry of Finance, from January to December 2020, the national budget deficit reached 2.8 trillion tenge (-3.1% of GDP).